After months of growing volatility, the S&P 500 officially entered bear market territory today, dropping over 20% from its February high. The plunge follows President Donald Trump’s dramatic escalation of tariffs last week, which targeted over 60 countries and sent global markets reeling.

This marks a decisive turning point in the trade war we have covered step by step: from the initial rhetoric, to the first tariffs, to retaliatory measures, and now to this moment of financial fallout. The numbers alone are staggering: the Dow Jones shed more than 1,200 points on Monday; the NASDAQ posted its worst single-day loss since the 2020 pandemic; and the FTSE 100 hit a one-year low. Analysts across the board now warn of a looming global recession, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a U.S. recession to 45%.

Trump, meanwhile, defended the tariffs as “economic medicine” in a social media post on Sunday night, claiming they will secure American jobs and sovereignty. But the only cure markets seem to have found is in retreat. Investors rushed to safer assets, fueling a surge in government bond purchases and a spike in gold prices.

America’s allies have begun voicing alarm. Canada and Germany issued coordinated statements calling for “restraint and responsibility,” while Japan has requested an emergency G7 economic summit. China, which responded with its own round of tariffs earlier today, declared the U.S. had “abandoned international leadership” and vowed to deepen trade partnerships with other global players.

The human cost is already visible. Import-heavy sectors like agriculture and manufacturing have begun announcing layoffs. Small businesses that rely on foreign suppliers are bracing for massive disruptions. In states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Trump once promised economic revival, factory towns are now seeing plant closures and shrinking order books.

With the Federal Reserve holding emergency talks and global finance ministers scrambling for coordination, the question is no longer whether Trump’s tariffs will cause pain. It’s how much, and for how long.